Gaussian

Equity Research Monitor

Turkey

The latest in enterprise and strategic research are at your fingertips below, summarized in Gaussian's research monitor.

Lokman Hekim - Potential New Acquisition to add 200 bed capacity

Lokman Hekim - Potential New Acquisition to add 200 bed capacity

Lokman have had a busy quarter with investor events. Expect more in 2H18. Both trading and investments appear on track to meet guidance.

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Lokman Hekim 2020 results and outlook

Lokman Hekim 2020 results and outlook

Lokman have had a busy quarter with investor events. Expect more in 2H18. Both trading and investments appear on track to meet guidance.

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Lokman Hekim HYSET - Online exchange place for medical services

Lokman Hekim HYSET - Online exchange place for medical services

HYSET is a marketplace for medical services. The platform offers patients seeking care access to a network of healthcare providers. The business is headquartered in Ankara.

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HYSET by Lokman Hekim - the 21st Century Care with Price Transparency on Offer

HYSET by Lokman Hekim - the 21st Century Care with Price Transparency on Offer

Her Yerde Saglik ve Elektronik Ticaret A.S. (HYSET), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Lokman Hekim, operates a marketplace for healthcare services where patients match their needs with products and packages the network hospitals have on offer.

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GEM Healthcare - HYSET, Lokman Hekim's Venture in MedTech

GEM Healthcare - HYSET, Lokman Hekim's Venture in MedTech

Lokman has invested in a medical technology company to establish an exclusive online marketplace for healthcare services. Her Yerde Saglik ve Elektronik Ticaret A.S. (HYSET) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Lokman. The medical marketplace helps patients match their needs and requirements with services available in the network.

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Sisecam - Recovery and Restructuring with Risks to the Upside

Sisecam - Recovery and Restructuring with Risks to the Upside

Exposure to both enterprises and households makes glass manufacturing all the more attractive for investors looking to position for recovery in demand. With its diversified client base and margin accretive restructuring project underway, Sisecam should top the list of glassmakers set to benefit from the turnaround.

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Sisecam - Glass of the World's Desire

Sisecam - Glass of the World's Desire

Sisecam, Europe’s largest glass manufacturer, is about to complete the ground work to consolidate its divisions under one umbrella/one brand. The project will delist four subsidiaries whose shares are publicly listed.

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GEM Healthcare - IHH Healthcare Berhad: Fortis deal

GEM Healthcare - IHH Healthcare Berhad: Fortis deal

Fortis Healthcare Ltd India shareholders have approved IHH's takeover of Fortis. The deal is now awaiting regulatory approvals. The Fortis investment is a big challenge for IHH and it may take several years before this investment becomes earnings accretive. IHH is also postponing expansion plans in Turkey.

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GEM Healthcare - Lokman Hekim on track to meet guidance

GEM Healthcare - Lokman Hekim on track to meet guidance

Lokman have had a busy quarter with investor events. Expect more in 2H18. Both trading and investments appear on track to meet guidance.

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GEM Healthcare - the largest Turkish hospitals looking to go public but will they?

GEM Healthcare - the largest Turkish hospitals looking to go public but will they?

Medical Park and Memorial are reportedly planning to list their shares through public offerings next year. Private equity plans to divest stakes are no surprise but the valuations may fail to impress the sellers. GEM sector valuations are uninspiring as disappointed investors have reduced exposure since the beginning of 2016.

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GEM Strategy - Turkish equity outlook warrants further share price gains

GEM Strategy - Turkish equity outlook warrants further share price gains

The consensus earnings are understated by at least 10% on 2017, and more on 2018. Looking at the turnaround in economic activity and seeing strong earnings momentum not yet fully recognized by the market, we reckon share price gains will continue in 2H17. The earnings momentum alone warrants 25% upside.

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GEM Healthcare - Lokman Hekim: Merits of Etlik expansion

GEM Healthcare - Lokman Hekim: Merits of Etlik expansion

The capacity expansion and upgrade at Lokman's Etlik Hospital, the most profitable location across Lokman group hospitals, should be earnings and value enhancing to shareholders.

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GEM Strategy - symbols undermining equity values all across Balkans

GEM Strategy - symbols undermining equity values all across Balkans

The treatment of intellectual property, corporate identity, brands and other enterprise intangibles is fairly relaxed in the countries which collectively make up the region we call Emerging Europe. The rather careless attitude towards or lack of interest in intangible assets undermines equity values particularly in Greece, Turkey, Russia, and the Balkans.

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GEM strategy - Turkish rally has legs, the yields to fall 200bp and stocks to add 20%

GEM strategy - Turkish rally has legs, the yields to fall 200bp and stocks to add 20%

With Turkish GDP growth outstripping its peers, consumer price inflation steadily improving between now and the year end, and the market not having a strong view on either, Turkish assets should outperform global benchmarks. We project the Turkish Lira yield curve to shift down by at least 200bp before December. The equity valuations should also improve 20-25% by year-end. 

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GEM financials - Finansbank with a little bit of Yapi Kredi

GEM financials - Finansbank with a little bit of Yapi Kredi

This is a short story of Finansbank and its founder. The story is mostly based on facts and our experience with these two banks as an analyst over the years. 

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GEM Financials - Turkish banks: Two elephants in a small room

GEM Financials - Turkish banks: Two elephants in a small room

The December quarter results came in marginally better than consensus. The sources of positive surprise to earnings include higher-than-expected yields on CPI-linkers, NPL reversals and somewhat better-than expected F&CI. However, full year results have demonstrated yet again that Turkish banks continue to struggle to grow earnings with profits falling two years in a row.

Akbank, Garanti and TSKB top the equity valuation tables with price to book multiples above 1x. (2015). The remaining banks are trading at least 20% below book. Halkbank's current valuation implies excessively high cost of equity, which is out of sync with its peers.

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GEM Healthcare - IHH Healthcare Berhad reports strong sales, mixed margins in 2015

GEM Healthcare - IHH Healthcare Berhad reports strong sales, mixed margins in 2015

IHH reported decent sales growth across regions. The margins are somewhat weaker due to investments. RM2.3B in December quarter revenues registering 18% growth. EBITDA reads RM614.3M (+5%). Earnings posted 74% YoY growth to RM415.8B on several one-off items and exceptional gains. Full fiscal year 2015 revenues and EBITDA grew by 15% and 10% YoY to RM8.5B and RM2.1B, respectively. Investments are broadly on track to meet targets.

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GEM Strategy - Emerging market fund flows: is there a silver lining?

GEM Strategy - Emerging market fund flows: is there a silver lining?

Outflows continue with some shuffling. We are not out of the woods by any stretch of imagination; and it is too early to say the worst is over. EM investors will be compelled to trade stocks.

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GEM Strategy - Chinese and Turkish LEI surprise to the upside, Russia leaves the policy rate unchanged

GEM Strategy - Chinese and Turkish LEI surprise to the upside, Russia leaves the policy rate unchanged
  • China – positive risk to growth with strong LEI over the weekend
  • Russia – the central bank leaves the rate unchanged with inflationary expectations on the rise
  • Turkey – growth surprises to the upside, is a Fed hike priced fully?
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